Quick story: My wife came to me a couple of weeks ago and said “Here is $500 to place a bet on a horse (ok a stock). I want you to find us a long shot, a high return ringer of a (thoroughbred, ok a stock), and only put money on it to win. No second or third place finish, all or nothing!” “Make me a believer in this choice!” “Also make sure the jockey (ok CEO) is a female!” All I could say with my jaw dropping to our maple hardwood flooring, “uh sure, ok baby, I got you, I won’t let you down!”
We were recently in the Charlotte Douglas International Airport in North Carolina. We were about to board the plane with our “two tickets to paradise”. I noticed a video screen about the size of a small tv at the door of the boarding ramp, facing us, that said Big Bear AI. Wait! I have heard of this company! The video screen turned out to be a very sophisticated software that reads the fliers face as you hand over your boarding pass. This process makes sure the person that went thru TSA is the same person actually getting on the plane, and not someone else that received a handoff of the boarding pass, that has been stuffing their shoes insoles with explosives in the rest room stall. Well, the company sold the DHS (Department of Homeland Security) a contract for the first 20 airports, including Charlotte, before they get the go ahead for the rest of the major airports around the USA. Maybe we have BBAI to thank, (in part) for keeping our shoes on through TSA?
When we returned home this is what my studies in our extensive library of research turned up on Big Bear AI, and why we went with this dark horse for our $500.
Something is stirring at BigBear.ai, and it is not just the $8 stock price (as of 7/17/25). Since Mandy Long took the reins as CEO in late 2022, the company has been shedding its bear skin as a quiet, government-contract data outfit and evolving into something leaner, smarter, and vastly more relevant to the commercial AI revolution now underway. This is not a start up, they have been around since 1988. BigBear.ai limped through its IPO debut in late 2021 and flirted with penny stock purgatory. That version of BBAI is dead. What has emerged is a new beast entirely, and Mandy Long is the architect, with big bear paws and 7-inch razor sharp claws.
Mandy did not arrive by accident or parachute in from some corporate cul-de-sac. Her background reads like a blueprint for this exact moment in the history of AI. Before taking over BigBear, she led major segments of IBM’s AI efforts, including Watson Health* (*see below for more info). She was instrumental in reshaping how big tech delivers usable intelligence across sectors like healthcare and enterprise automation. She understands product strategy, knows how to sell AI to government and business buyers alike, and most importantly, she’s one of the rare executives who speaks with a clear mission and vision, easily embraceable by the little guy investor.
Under her leadership, BigBear is no longer satisfied with chasing defense contracts and data visualization gigs. It is shifting toward scalable AI products that can be deployed across commercial industries, from logistics to manufacturing to national security. Long has been clear: the mission is to move from plain display services to repeatable, intelligent platforms. This is where the higher margins live. This is where multiples expand. And this is where investors should start paying close attention.
BigBear is tackling a problem few others in the AI space have solved, how to deliver real-time, actionable intelligence to clients drowning in data. Unlike most AI companies that offer black-box tools or endless pilot programs, BigBear specializes in operation AI at the edge. That means taking AI out of the lab and into the war room, the warehouse, the dispatch center. They are doing it with partnerships, product launches, and most crucially, a leadership style that marries vision with execution.
Long has introduced a simple but disciplined framework for BigBear’s transformation. She calls it the three P’s: what is possible, what is practical, and what people will actually pay for. That third one is a key. It is the line that separates AI dreamers from AI winners. If Mandy Long has a gift, it is her ability to translate complex technology into outcomes customers will write checks for, again and again. That skill does not just build companies, it builds durable shareholder value and that is exactly the kind of horse (or CEO) I want to bet on.
Since she took over, BigBear has made major moves: aligning with Palantir (PLTR) on edge intelligence, winning multi-year federal contracts, and investing in scalable products that feed both sides of its business, government and commercial. And here is the market disconnect: the stock still trades like it is stuck in 2021. Investors are pricing it like a leftover sandwich, not like a company pivoting into one of the most valuable lanes in AI. But that mispricing is exactly where opportunity lives. The roadmap is getting clearer with every earnings call. The commercial backlog is growing. Productization is accelerating. Execution is tightening. If Mandy Long delivers on the vision—and she seems hell-bent on doing so, then BigBear.ai does not belong under $8. It belongs in a very different tier of the AI conversation.
This is not a stock that explodes overnight. It is one that compounds quarter by quarter as real-world AI use cases spread and Big Bear plants its claws deeper into industry and government.
I am giving it to 24 months, and our $500 investment which amounted to 76 shares at $6.50 per share could be looking at a breakout narrative that went largely unnoticed…until it wasn’t.
Watch Mandy Long on You Tube. Follow BigBear.ai. The market may be sleeping on them, but they are very much awake, and out of hibernation.
*IBM Watson is an artificial intelligence (AI) platform that utilizes natural language processing and machine learning to analyze large datasets and extract insights. It was initially designed as a question-answering system that gained notoriety for winning the game show Jeopardy! in 2011. Today, Watson offers a suite of services like Watson Assistant for chatbots, Watson Discovery for data analysis, and Watson Studio for building machine learning models, which organizations can use to automate tasks, improve decision-making, and enhance customer experiences in various sectors like healthcare, finance, and retail.
Results are not typical. I teach methods that have made other traders’ money, but that does not guarantee you will make any money. Success in trading requires work and dedication. Past performance does not indicate future results. All trading carries risks.
