Stock Talk
Launched 8 Months Ago
Hi, I’m Papa Phil, the founder of a space called Stock Talk. I combine my decades in Finance, Entrepreneurship & Technology with my passion and curiosity, to make it easier for people to invest or trade.
Standing at the cliffs edge in the first quarter of 2025, I got out of all of my pharma stock positions. I was long in many of them purchased in 2023 but picked up my marbles (profits) and strode off the stage (dirt circle). It had become too clear to me that Donny T & Robert F did not want to play the marbles game in the pharmaceutical arena. I just cannot play politics with prescriptions.
If you ever needed proof that politics, pharmaceuticals, and the stock market cannot throw a party together, look no further than the latest headline act: Trump’s 100% tariffs on overseas manufacturing of pills. The stated goal is to “bring drug manufacturing back home,” which sounds patriotic until you realize most of our supply chain for critical medicines lives in countries whose names my spellcheck still struggles with.
Tariffs may nudge companies to repatriate production, but it means higher costs for the manufacturers and, eventually, for us patients. Investors know the translation: the margin squeeze will show up in earnings reports faster than your Walmart pharmacy app can text you that your prescription is ready.
Let’s also look at Eli Lilly (LLY). The drug manufacturer darling of Wall Street was riding the two-year crest of their syringe-based weight loss drug, Monjaro and Zepbound, and a stock price of $930 a share. Whispers of a stock split for extra shares were being heard in the cubicles of Wall Street.
So why did the stock get the drop it like its hot to $625 a share, a loss of $235 – ouch. This represents a 35% drop from the all-time highs: Two main reasons for the slump, Trump 100% tariffs will trounce the cost structure for the company, and maybe more importantly the “new oral weight loss drug” called Orfoglipron had a large dropout rate during a recent trial. Double ouch.
Let’s next take a look at Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY). Bristol-Myers Squibb’s has a major opportunity in the psychosis area with Cobenfy, an “oral medication for schizophrenia”, which they acquired through the $14 billion acquisition of Karuna Therapeutics. All of the drugs in this category, across all pharma companies, “tested previously” have seen the side effects of the drug be worse than the actual disease. Cobenfy had near zero negative side effects. Many of the individuals afflicted by this disease are also unhoused and therefor without medical plans or street support. BMY has had a tough time getting the drug to be used ubiquitously. Although the curtain has not yet fallen on the Cobenphy stage, many investors got in way too soon or were sold a bag of placebos. The stock peaked at $57 a share in the past year and is now down to $45 a drop of 19%, – ouch again, and all these oches feel like my osteoarthritic hip.
There are a lot of stories in 2025 about trials going awry in pharma. I have them noted below at the bottom of the newsletter, if you care to follow the thread we have created together***
The repatriating of drug manufacturers may or may not happen, but the pharma sector will rise again like a phoenix from the ashes “or” when hell freezes over. Somewhere in between those two times I will be ready to dip a toe into the pharma waters again.
Results are not typical. I teach methods that have made other traders’ and investors’ money, but that does not guarantee you will make money. Success in trading and investing requires work and dedication. Past performance does not indicate future results. All trading and investing carries risk.
***Notable Trial Failures of 2025
1. Vertex – VX-993 (Non-Opioid Painkiller)
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Phase: II (mid-stage)
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What went wrong: VX-993 reduced post-surgery pain by a solid 74.5 points vs. 50.2 for placebo—but it didn’t reach statistical significance.
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Outcome: Development halted for standalone use; shares took a tumble.
2. Sun Pharma Advanced Research – SCD-044 (Psoriasis/Atopic Dermatitis)
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Phase: II
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What went wrong: Failed to hit primary endpoints in treating skin conditions.
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Outcome: Stock dived ~20%; investor confidence shaken.
3. iTeos & GSK – Belrestotug (Lung Cancer Combo)
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Phase: II (mid-stage)
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What went wrong: Combination therapy didn’t improve progression-free survival in non-small cell lung cancer.
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Outcome: Collaboration ended; trial enrollment stopped.
4. Novartis – Cosentyx (Giant Cell Arteritis)
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Phase: III (late-stage)
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What went wrong: Failed to replicate Phase II success; no significant improvement in sustained remission.
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Outcome: Big disappointment for immune-mediated disease efforts.
5. Neumora Therapeutics – Navacaprant (Major Depressive Disorder)
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Phase: III
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What went wrong: Failed to show effectiveness in MDD compared to placebo.
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Outcome: Stock plunged ~80% upon release of results
