https://philippinelli.substack.com/081cf45d
Stock Talk
Launched 8 Months Ago
Hi, I’m Papa Phil, the founder of a space called Stock Talk. I combine my decades working in Finance, Entrepreneurship & Technology with my passion and curiosity for finding great companies, to make it easier for people to invest or trade.
Episode 1:
For decades, the United States has prided itself on being a free market economy. Government intervention in the private sector was considered extremely taboo, the kind of central planning associated with Europe, or worse, with China. But that narrative has been cracking.
This shift opens an uncomfortable question: how far will the U.S. go in adopting state capitalism under the guise of national security? The answer depends less on economics and more on politics.
The United States is entering very unfamiliar territory by getting in bed with our public companies. My position is simple – I do not enjoy this approach.
China has a had a lock on providing America with rare earth metals i.e. magnets, which must be plentiful to fuel Americas future. The U.S. government made a direct contract with Californias MP Materials in July, to provide $150 million for a new facility, and a commitment to buy all magnets from them. This is so they can provide the magnet resources needed for AI hardware, defense equipment, and electrification.
Nvidia and AMD are now required to send 15% of China semiconductor sales revenue to Washington D.C.
With Intel effectively handing over 10% of its equity in stock to the Trump administration. All three of these deals occurred in just the past 8 weeks! The stage is set for more to come. A sovereign wealth model could continue to be Trumps next financial experiment.
Switzerland offers a functional case study. Its sovereign wealth activities are measured, market-oriented, and designed to support long-term stability. It acts less like a political tool and more like a strategic financial instrument. Compare this with China, where state intervention is direct, controlling, and often viewed as socialist intrusion. Beijing’s heavy hand shapes entire industries, but at the cost of market transparency and investor trust. Beijing routinely supports entire industries with subsidies, credit guarantees, and preferential policies.
The Trump experiment could fall somewhere in between. Done occasionally, it becomes a stabilizer and a generator of national wealth. Overdone, and it risks being seen as nationalized cronyism. Quite a tightrope to walk over deadly waters filled with all kinds of killer animals.
This is no small pivot on the USA part. That model, once derided as inefficient, is now being studied in Washington under a new lens: national security. In a world of AI-driven competition, rare earth dependencies, and vulnerable power grids, the U.S. can no longer pretend that markets alone will provide resilience.
Which companies would be next in line if this model expands? The candidates, of course, are not perfectly clear but here is my take on the short list.
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Space X: Not a public company but this one would be a war of its own, Trump vs Musk, get me a ringside ticket Stub Hub. We are fully relying on Space X for our deep space flights.
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GE Aerospace: Advance aircraft engines for national defense.
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Palantir: Already an imbedded AI defense company for America.
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GE Vernova: Spun out as an energy infrastructure firm, Vernova is central to turbines, grid modernization, and industrial power systems. With AI workloads demanding massive, stable energy, Vernova could get on Washington’s radar.
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NextEra Energy, Quanta Services, and Eaton: Together these represent the nervous system of America’s grid. AI data centers cannot run on outdated infrastructure. Expect Washington to fund grid modernization as a strategic imperative.
All of these companies are doing quite well, thank you very much America. They are not in any need of US monetary assistance as Intel, and MP Materials clearly were.
The pattern is obvious. America is moving away from laissez-faire and into a system where government selects winners by need, not because they are the best, but because they are essential. It is Switzerland’s model of quiet intervention married to China’s unapologetic state capitalism.
Results are not typical. The methods I teach have helped other traders and investors, but there are no guarantees. Success in trading and investing takes work, discipline, and dedication. Past performance is never a promise of future results. Every trade and investment carries risk.
