Stock Talk
Launched 9 Months Ago
Hi, I’m Papa Phil, the founder of a space called Stock Talk. I combine my decades working in Finance, Entrepreneurship & Technology with my passion and curiosity for finding great companies, to make it easier for people to invest or trade.
Prelude:
As a rule, I generally do not talk about my specific portfolio win and loss details in Stock Talk, today I provide an exception to that rule. As of September 12th, Close of Markets (COM) Stock Talk is gratefully up 45% YTD on our investments taken as a whole. 100% of our commodities and stocks are in the green from what was originally purchased / invested, some are 70% up the lowest is up 10%. All of them have had the cost of buying those equities taken out, so everything is pure profit. Nearly all of them we are long on (held over 12 months). With all that risk maintenance we are still at +45% YTD. We jettisoned the weak and favored the promising*. We have done it primarily through a disregard of a common rule of mine, one discipline never to be ignored: do not have more than one stock is any one sector like, Energy, Consumer Staples, Tech, Healthcare, Financials, Real Estate, Utilities etc. However, we do our due diligence every month to make sure the railcars are staying on the track, and not just the engine and caboose. Most of these were purchased slowly through dollar cost averaging (DCA), not so much because of fixed a schedule more because of research related convictions. Why did we break a golden rule? This is a unique time, you have heard me say it over and over again, “AI is the Way”. We are not bastardizing the discipline altogether, we still have in our portfolio a stock in financial, an aerospace, a communication company, two energy companies, one crypto, one gold, one real estate trust, and one cybersecurity. “Where we are heavy is AI, we have four companies”. I know and accept my butt paddling punishment, “Thank you sir may I have another!” I am “convinced” this is the right way to go till to at least 2028, time will tell me.
Conviction:
Every investor eventually faces the same mirror. It is the one that stares back when a stock you loved last month suddenly feels like a stranger today. The headlines scream. Analysts spin stories. Friends at dinner ask whether you are still holding. And in that moment, you are forced to decide whether your position was built on conviction or confusion.
Conviction is not about falling in love with a company. Never buy or hold using your emotions, that is a rookie mistake. Conviction is about knowing the facts and standing firm on them when the ground feels shaky. It is about understanding that the market is noisy by design and that volatility is the price of admission. If you bought because the fundamentals are strong, the leadership is proven, and the moat is wide, then conviction means you do not let a bad week or two chase you out of a good idea.
“If the fundamentals of my buying strategy still hold true, so should you continue to hold too.”
Confusion:
Confusion is different. Confusion happens when you bought because somebody on television sounded convincing. Or because the chart looked exciting, but you never understood the business. Confusion is what whispers in your ear during downturns and makes you forget why you pressed the buy button in the first place. It is dangerous because confusion always dresses itself up as conviction until the pressure hits.
The truth is the market rewards clarity. That is why seasoned investors often say to cut your losers quickly. If you realize your decision was built on confusion, stop the bleeding and move on. That is not failure. That is tuition. Every investor pays it. The difference between the amateurs and the professionals is that professionals recognize the lesson faster and cheaper.
Swagger:
Now let us talk about swagger. Real swagger in investing is not loud. It does not show up in memes or message boards. Real swagger is quiet. It is sitting on a position everyone else is doubting and waiting for the numbers to prove you right. It is buying humiliation when the crowd is selling in fear. It is selling hubris when the crowd thinks the party never ends. That is where real wealth is built.
Investing is a marathon with surprise sprints in the middle. You do not get to choose when the market tests your patience. But you do get to choose whether you show up confused or convicted. Most people never make that choice consciously. They drift between the two and call it strategy. Do not be most people.
The next time you feel the urge to check your account balance three times in a single hour, pause. Ask yourself one question. Did I buy this because of conviction or because of confusion. If it is conviction, then turn off the noise and let time do its work. If it is confusion, then thank the market for the lesson and walk away with your capital intact.
That mirror never lies. Conviction pays. Confusion costs. The market will make sure you remember which one you brought with you.
* We did remove (aka sell) a $500 “bet” on BBAI, after finding some disturbing financial information and felt we should be straight up with our readers about.
Results are not typical. The methods I teach have helped other traders and investors, but there are no guarantees. Success in trading and investing takes work, discipline, and dedication. Past performance is never a promise of future results. Every trade and investment carries risk.
